A £2.69 a week increase in the state pension is on the cards from April next year, taking it to £110.14.
The extra money will be little more than half the increase handed out to pensioners this year.
The Chancellor has promised that the pension would rise by the highest of CPI inflation, average earnings and 2.5% - the so-called triple lock.
The September inflation rate, reported tomorrow, is the figure used for pension and benefit uprating. It's expected to be 2.2% or lower, while average earnings have been rising at just 1.5%. So the 2.5% guarantee is likely to be called upon - resulting in the extra £2.69.
The Chancellor tends to confirm increases in pensions and benefits around the time of the Autumn Statement, which he'll deliver in early December.
By that time pensioners and others will be having to cope with the latest round of price increases from gas and electricity suppliers.
CPI inflation could well start rising again, so the £2.69 increase from the current £107.45 a week could look like a big disappointment.
Especially if you compare it to this year's £5.30 or 5.2% jump.